NASCAR Playoffs 2023: Toyota Dominance, Chevrolet's Struggle, and Round of 12 Predictions (2026)

The initial stage of the NASCAR Playoffs is done and is now ready to turn the page on the Round of 12 at New Hampshire. The fight to stay in the championship race is even tighter, so here are three takeaways from the Round of 16:

Toyota’s Dominance SoFar

So far we’ve seen that Toyota has been the dominant force in the playoffs. With just 5 cars in the postseason, they’ve still managed to control the pace, sweeping all 3 races and leading most of the laps at Darlington, Gateway and Bristol.

Joe Gibbs Racing has been especially strong everywhere. When you talk to drivers and analysts, the word that keeps coming up is “speed”. Toyota has it and until someone finds a way to match it, they’re setting the bar for the rest of the field.

Chevrolet Has Been Under the Gun but Showing Improvement

On the other side, Chevrolet — and Hendrick Motorsports in particular — has had a tougher time. Kyle Larson, William Byron and Chase Elliott haven’t been bad but compared to Toyota, their results just haven’t added up.

Hendrick Motorsports has been open about working on their short-track and flat-track program and there’s been progress but not enough to turn the tables in the first round. And to make things worse, Chevrolet hasn’t won at New Hampshire since 2012.

If Chevy wants to change the narrative of these playoffs, Loudon would be the perfect place to do it.

The Playoffs are Tight

Even with Toyota’s dominance, the playoff race is still super close. Only one seeded driver was eliminated in the Round of 16 which shows how tight the margins are. One bad night , or one bad pit stop ,  could send a favorite packing.

Drivers like Tyler Reddick and Ross Chastain are right on that bubble where every stage point could make or break their run. History says New Hampshire rewards proven winners but the pressure is so high right now that this could just as easily be the turning point for someone trying to go above their means.

Predictions andPicks

As we get to Loudon, most are looking at Toyota again. Christopher Bell is the popular pick given his history at the track and Kevin Harvick even mentioned Chase Briscoe as a driver to watch for the New Hampshire race.

But don’t count out Chevrolet completely. Ross Chastain has been sneaky good here and if Hendrick gets the setup right, Larson or Byron could surprise and end the drought for Chevy at the Magic Mile.

Either way, this feels like a momentum shifter , the kind of race that will determine who makes a real run at the Championship 4.